April 28 The lockdown policies have been successful in containing the exponential growth of the epidemic that we saw in March. Still, even just the eight below countries have had almost 20 million infections (about 10x what has been reported), and in May we should expect at least 5 million more if current social distancing policies are prolonged:
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April 21 Some good news: countries that we estimate to have significant reductions in the number of new infections:
Dots = data as reported; Lines = model estimates; Dashed = 95% confidence intervals
20 April:
This chart shows the reported cases vs. estimated infections in 8 highly Covid-impacted countries, up to yesterday. The number of actual infections (17 million) is estimated to be over ten times the numbers reported. The differences stems from two factors:
A lag between infection and reporting
Undertesting of cases
The number of infections is estimated by our Bayesian model. It does carry wide error margins, but certainly the number of infections is several times the number of reported cases, and potentially even much higher than estimated in this chart.
This chart includes countries that in total represent about 60% of reported cases (1.5 million out of 2.4 million).
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